Al Qaeda, as far as anyone can make out, seems to be more of a dooms-day cult than anything else. They’re not fighting for anything (a global caliphate, a return to 600 year-old borders??). On the other hand Hamas very definitely is, in their distorted way, fighting for.

The other Arab states haven’t done a thing for the Palestinians in 40 years, why start now? There are astonishingly large Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon where – despite a large local Palestinian population (and in Jordan, which is actually a Palestinian country) they are forbidden to integrate (and there’s currently a little war going on in those Lebanese camps as well). Israel’s neighbours enjoy the instability it causes Israel (and the US) so that they can’t interfere in the region too much.

I don’t think it’s that “aha” moment that allows for real change to happen. The Israelis are looking for excuses not to lead the process and Hamas just handed it to them. There’ll probably be some sort of peace conference in Saudi Arabia shortly which won’t really solve anything but gives everyone a chance to be on TV.

Zimbabwe? Haven’t you heard, we have this marvellous thing called “quiet diplomacy”. It’s where the South African government accuses Israel of being a fascist regime but declares Zimbabwe a well-run state. Our attitude is to prop up Mugabe so that the country doesn’t collapse and deport the refugees as soon as we catch them. Since everyone is on strike, that’s getting harder.

Zimbabwe has to collapse at some point. I’m not sure about this six-month timetable though. I’ve got a researcher in Zim now and we want to know how much of the economy is still cash-based. It is a rich country, well able to feed itself (in good times) and so a barter society would be stable for a long time. But, sooner or later, Mugabe has to die (he’s in his 80s) and then all hell will break loose. And, no, South Africa will not be prepared for it.

I doubt that anyone would invade Zim – they’re surrounded by fairly placid neighbours. And we wouldn’t allow it, so that’s alright.

Gavin, you sound like Mark Twain. That’s the highest compliment this writer can pay you.

What I’d like to know about is possible outcomes. Will this (perhaps planned) destabilization of Gaza precipitate war between Israel and neighbors such as Jordan, Syria, Egypt? Would Saudi-Arabia get involved? Or is this a scenario ripe for Al Qaeda? (Do you think maybe Al Qaeda has infiltrated Hamas to foment this, or is this part of some larger Hamas plan to force the “Palestinian state” issue?)

As for Zimbabwe, how will S.A. handle such a refugee influx? What will it take to turn Zimbabwe around? Will other countries invade? Or will Zimbabwe turn into another Somalia? Or is it already? What do you foresee S.A. doing to protect its interests?