Today’s polls are beginning to show Obama pulling away in what were once toss-up states. SurveyUSA, which fivethirtyeight.com rates as a high-quality poll, puts Obama up five points in Ohio and 15 points in Pennsylvania. Quinnipac/Wall Street Journal/Washington Post, a better-than-average poll, puts Obama up by 16 in Michigan, nine in Colorado, 11 in Minnesota, and 17 in Wisconsin. An average survey, Public Policy Polling, gives Obama a three-point lead in North Carolina. Assuming these numbers are close to being correct, and given past Democratic/Republican voting patterns, it’s probably safe to say that Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin are out of reach for McCain, and Colorado is a very long shot. Though there are no recent polls, I would also put Washington out of reach based on past voting patterns.
Ohio is still very winnable. Full story »





