Comments on: Why John McCain is not going to catch Barack Obama

By: Scholars and Rogues » The polls are insane today, and why McCain is still fighting in Pennsylvania

Tue, 21 Oct 2008 23:08:44 +0000

[...] reiterate an earlier post, if McCain takes all the states that are solid or leaning towards him, AND he takes all the toss-up [...]

By: Scholars and Rogues » America’s Negro Cracker Problem: none of us are free

Tue, 21 Oct 2008 12:43:07 +0000

[...] an Obama victory (which looks more likely by the day) would nonetheless mark a milestone: we would have arrived at a point where a man of [...]

By: Lex

Lex — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 00:34:56 +0000

Thank you, Brian. I used Wendy’s phrase, “common ground for the common good” and that came from her post sometime back about abortion…which was probably the best piece of writing on the subject that i’ve ever read.

Abortion is one of those issues, and i’ve never understood why it is such a contentious issue. It’s not as if anyone thinks that abortion is cool or fun; nobody is pro-abortion. I think that there is almost certainly a middle ground where consensus could be found, but i don’t think we’ll get there because the battle is more important than solving the problem.

By: Steve

Steve — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 19:01:14 +0000

Finishing up my early vote today, it occurred to me that there was no exit polling. With about three thousand votes cast at the early voting location in the first four days of operatiion (I was vote #3107) and some seventeen days left, and as the word about early voting catches on, it seems like the exit polling on Election Night probably won’t be very accurate.

By: Brian Angliss

Brian Angliss — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 18:19:38 +0000

Lex, excellent and vital point. To use abortion as an example, the best way to reduce the number of abortions is to change the circumstances that make women believe they need one. That means helping new mothers, improving economic well-being for the poor (who have the most abortions), and so on.

Outlawing abortions will have about as much effect on demand as outlawing undocumented workers has – almost none.

By: Lex

Lex — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 14:23:35 +0000

Rho and Ann have an important point that can’t be repeated or stressed enough. There is far too much of the “with us or against us” attitude on both sides of the political divide. And, i submit, far too much identification with party rather than principles. A conservative is much more likely to vote Republican, but that’s not the same as being a Republican and then defining conservatism as whatever the GOP decides it is. That ends with conservatives twisting themselves in knots to explain how a big government, budget busting, neo-liberal president is “conservative”.

The identification with party feeds the with us or against us attitude that corrodes our entire political process. It makes what Wendy so eloquently described as common ground for the common good impossible. It makes our adversarial system non-functioning because it places all the stress on the second half of the phrase, “loyal opposition”…and often to the complete exclusion of the first half of the phrase.

The other political party is not your mortal enemy, and as soon as you conceptualize it as such you make consensus impossible. Total, political victory is both unattainable and dangerous, even in its pursuit. These things are what’s fracturing our nation, and it will be them that destroy us…we are our own worst enemy.

*Note that while i used the GOP as my example, the same things could be said about the Democratic Party and its adherents. Of course, none of this goes for every adherent.

By: JS O'Brien

JS O'Brien — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 04:21:39 +0000

George:

Obama may very well lose a number of toss-up states. If he wins Florida, it’s all over. If he loses Florida, he can still win along a number of paths.

By: george waring

george waring — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 00:54:56 +0000

I honestly don’t think Obama will win Florida. Don’t ask me for proof, just wait.

By: Rho

Rho — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 00:32:08 +0000

Ann,

Glad we repubs are good for something

By: Ann Ivins

Ann Ivins — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 00:14:18 +0000

I’d like to add that several people I love, admire and respect identify as Republicans in much the same way Rho does. As far as I know, none of them advocate hacking voting machines, few of them are visibly slimy, and as for sharing the planet, I’d hate to see my in-laws disappear… because hey, free babysitting.

By: Steve

Steve — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 22:26:14 +0000

I wouldn’t say lazy. Cynical, maybe.

By: me

me — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 17:36:07 +0000

Don’t be overconfident. The repubs don’t have to win – they only have to get the vote close enough that they can steal the election.

Don’t count on younger voters either. History has shown time and again that young people are too lazy to vote.

By: Steve

Steve — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 15:55:24 +0000

It’s also worth noting that large purges of voter registrations tend to make the news nowadays, so this sort of thing has gotten a lot harder to do.

By: Rho

Rho — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 13:36:19 +0000

Just want to point out that not all republicans are repugnicans. There are quite a few of us who are unhappy with the direction our party has gone over the last couple of decades and are trying to recover it. Saying that I will also say I AM voting for Obama because McCain would NOT be part of rescuing my party.

By: MJJP

MJJP — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 12:25:59 +0000

I don’t believe in any October surprise from McCain. If anything I would’nt be surprised if Obama saves the best for last and brings up another surprise to nail the coffin shut once and for all.

By: fikshun

fikshun — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 05:22:23 +0000

Diane,
I think the Bradley Effect and your mention of hackable votes are connected. The Repugs want to trump up the plausibility of the Bradley Effect to mollify the masses (just enough, anyway) if Diebold should hand McCain his narrow victory.

By: Russ Wellen

Russ Wellen — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 02:42:52 +0000

Regarding Fivethirtyeight, a truly addicting site, New York magazine ran a lengthy article titled "The Spreadsheet Psychic" about the guy behind it, Nate Silver.

By: Diane

Diane — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 02:34:56 +0000

then of course there are hackable voting machines out there,not to mention boxes of ballots”lost” .
There is not a law the repugs won’t break to win. they are l despicable low lifes and do not care one bit about this country , despite the flag pins and flag waving. Funny, I’m still able to be shocked at how slimy the repugs are. I hate sharing a planet with them.

By: Lex

Lex — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 01:15:18 +0000

Unless…

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/23638322/block_the_vote

Most of the Scrogues are in Colorado, no? Republican Secretaries of State of swing-state Colorado have quietly purged one in six names from their voter rolls.

Oddly enough, almost all of the shenanigans are occurring under the Help America Vote Act. I’ll give the Bush administration this: even Orwell couldn’t make up the stuff that they actually do.

Let’s hope that there are no November surprises.

By: Applesauce » This guys says McCain can’t win

Applesauce » This guys says McCain can’t win — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 23:00:18 +0000

[...] Stephen O’Brien, a management consultant specializing in organizational behavior, EXPLAINS at Scholars and Rogues why he figures John McCain is [...]