Comments on: Gore says ‘tipping point’ close for public push on climate change

By: Lex

Lex — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 22:20:13 +0000

I wouldn’t be surprised if a social tipping point were near. I see two reasons. The first is that as the average American finds out that the economy, from their perspective, isn’t going to get better for a long while they A. will tend to cut back on consumption and B. see priorities changing. These won’t be directly attributable to climate change, but many of the things listed as “what you can do” tend to be cost-savers in the long run. They generally require more time/effort, but usually there’s more time when there’s less money.

The second is that there are a lot (really) of conservative environmentalists. If you read Crunchy Cons it forms a basis of the ideology: conserving. What needs to be done to push the scale past the tipping point is for the “in the bag” liberals to shift tactics somewhat to appeal to rational conservatives and moderates. Al Gore is not a good spokesman for the movement, partly because of his politics and partly because he’s so messianic about it (and a little bit shady, imo).

The serious deniers will never be swayed, and arguing with them for the hearts and minds of everyone in the middle will most likely fail…at least in the short term. Ignore them, stay away from the polemics and the doomsday scenario (even if it is real). Make it about values. Frame the issue as one of being conservative with what we have and what we’ll give to the next generation.

I could well be wrong. This country is bat-shit crazy, but that only goes to show that it isn’t likely to respond favorably to reason.

By: Brian Angliss

Brian Angliss — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 21:55:59 +0000

I wonder if the sense of the “palpable sense of a social tipping point” you mention is why so many climate disruption skeptics and deniers are suddenly claiming victory. You know, repeat that loud enough and long enough and it takes on a life of its own. Hmmmm….

By: Wendy Redal

Wendy Redal — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 21:02:10 +0000

Indeed, Denny, I would have liked to have seen some ‘evidence’ from Gore and Lubchenco to substantiate their assertions. I wish I had been in line to ask them these tough but important questions. And had I time to go beyond merely reporting the session, I would have liked to explore the issues you raise — I’m glad you raised these concerns the in the comment thread, at any rate.. I think there may be a palpable sense of a social tipping point nearing within certain circles — perhaps those of a moderate ilk (assuming liberals are already in the bag) — but if one reads the comments on the Wisconsin State Journal link on SEJ’s web page — the post is called “Gore Upbeat on Climate Bill” — I am inclined to wonder about Gore’s optimism. There is still a tremendous amount of dismissive hostility, not so visible to those who don’t spend lots of time in the conservative blogosphere. Maybe rather than report the meeting, I ought to have critiqued it and pondered how such a tipping point may be reached when we are still clearly such an ideologically divided nation. Maybe that’s my follow-up??

By: Dr. Denny

Dr. Denny — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 15:04:16 +0000

Thx, Brian. It bothers me when politicians and self-appointed agents of social change argue using terms that are ill-defined. Gimme my data, pls.

By: Brian Angliss

Brian Angliss — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 14:52:13 +0000

If you read today’s Carbo, I discuss a paper that points out that the mathematical science of “critical transitions,” aka “tipping points,” is still young and prone to both false positives and false negatives even when based on solid empirical evidence.

By: Scholars and Rogues » The Weekly Carboholic: Tipping points will be difficult to identify

Wed, 14 Oct 2009 14:52:11 +0000

[...] For news of a few politicians expecting a “social tipping point” on climate disruption soon, please read this piece by my colleague Wendy Redal. [...]

By: Dr. Denny

Dr. Denny — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 14:40:48 +0000

Just to fondly irritate my old friend, I ask this:

Who offers what empirical evidence that a “social tipping point” is near in regard to public attitudes toward climate change? Who has empirically defined what the “social tipping point” would be and what would be the anticipated result from it?

NOAA’s Jane Lubchenco claims “major 180-degree shifts in people’s attitudes toward things that for a long time to many seemed impossible: attitudes toward smoking, attitudes toward drunk driving, civil rights, women’s suffrage.” Yet people still smoke and die; people still drink, drive, die and kill others; and civil rights and women’s suffrage need constant attention to prevent their erosion.

I wish the former vice president would add evidence to his claim about a “social tipping point.” I’d like to be able to clearly see it when it comes nigh. (I bet major advertisers would like to be able to ID “social tipping points” of all kinds, too.)

Thanks for the timely piece, Wendy.

By: Brian Angliss

Brian Angliss — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 18:11:52 +0000

Thanks for bringing us up to speed on some of the happenings at this year’s SEJ conference, Wendy. I really hope that Lubchenko and Gore are right that we’re getting close to the point where the public finally get engaged on this issue.

I wish I was seeing more indication that the Obama Administration is going to push for it, though.