Comments on: The uneasy truth behind Tim Donaghy’s allegations

By: JS OBrien

JS OBrien — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 21:36:06 +0000

Nah, Slammy, Vegas wouldn’t have it built into the lines unless it was widespread knowledge. The lines are there only to balance out winners with losers so that the house never loses. People with information like this change the lines in minor ways with their bets, but the overall line is set to try to get the money on both sides to be even.

By: Ubertramp

Ubertramp — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 20:20:40 +0000

That’s what I mean. If they didn’t know it before, they do now and I’m certain they have stats people working on it.

By: Dr. Slammy

Dr. Slammy — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 19:15:35 +0000

If Vegas knew what Donaghy knows, they’d have the bias built into the lines to start with.

By: Ubertramp

Ubertramp — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 18:58:02 +0000

I bet Vegas is doing it. But I doubt they’ll publish the results.

By: JS OBrien

JS OBrien — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 18:35:11 +0000

Yeah. The fact is, I don’t know. It could simply be bias of another kind. There may be more refs in the ACC from North Carolina, for instance. It would take a long term measurement and a factor analysis to sort it out, but I’d love it if someone did it.

By: Dr. Slammy

Dr. Slammy — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 18:02:46 +0000

I’ve always been of the impression that both Carolina and Duke get pretty friendly treatment from the refs. I never thought about it in racial terms, though. For me, it’s just about the “respect” that goes with winning. And all of a sudden you have a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts.

But I may not be looking deeply enough. Race may well be a factor in officiating at all levels….

By: JS OBrien

JS OBrien — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 17:58:28 +0000

This would make a great research project for a consortium of psychology professors using students to do the filming and the data entry. I have some questions, for instance, about how Duke basketball players, who tend to be whiter than average, are treated. I think they get better foul calls than other teams, but that’s subjective and I’d love to see some objective data.

By: Dr. Slammy

Dr. Slammy — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 15:02:43 +0000

No, all of the rules except set #1 are very bad and have the effect of changing outcomes. Not sure which is the worst, but all undercut the integrity of the game.

If you had the time to study all the refs and all the players you could probably figure some things out, I’d imagine. But that would be time consuming and indirect. You’d never get to the point where you were as good at it as a guy in the refs’ locker room, I don’t imagine.

By: Ann

Ann — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 05:43:08 +0000

Is the last set of rules that much worse than, say, numbers 3 and 4? Those are examples of predictable and systematic bias, too, aren’t they? Do they not affect the outcome of games to the same extent? Or is it the “insider” part that makes the big difference in degree?

I wonder – if you were to watch as many games as possible, note the referees and the calls they made on certain players, could you figure out who disliked whom and make accurate predictions? Or does it require being on the inside to really know?

By: fikshun

fikshun — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 03:10:48 +0000

Interesting. On the one hand, it makes the absurd case for video review of every play (as well as making officials’ calls reviewable). It also showcases how important image is to any legal system. Ultimately, you’re only as reputable as your people.

On the other hand, it exposes the dark side of Pete Rozelle’s dream of league parity. In any modern sports entertainment business where every franchise is made equal, the razor’s edge is sharper than it used to be … and more subject to manipulation.

By: Tom Shortell

Tom Shortell — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 02:17:55 +0000

Donaghy’s betting record is too good to ignore – either other refs were in on it or it’s as he described it.

Normally, I’d say this is why I don’t watch the NBA, but it goes so much deeper than that. It’s the integrity of organized sports on the line here. That one person can so easily manipulate the system devastates the concept of fair play. This scandal is the worst thing to happen to professional sports since the Black Sox, and that includes Pete Rose.